STUDY TO ASSESS ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN A THERMAL POWER PLANT USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS MODEL

А. Nygymanova; B. Ongar; Y. Sarsenbayev

doi:10.31489/2025N2/60-67

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31489/2025N2/60-67

Keywords:

reliability analysis, availability analysis, thermal power plant, Fault Tree Analysis.

Abstract

This paper presents the application of Fault Tree Analysis model for availability assessment of thermal power plant. Reliability analysis as well as availability evaluation is performed for performance evaluation of thermal power plant. Equipment maintenance data is collected from maintenance history for which the goodness of fit test viz Kolmogorov-Smirnov is conducted and parameters for the best distribution are determined. Further, reliability of subsystems at various time intervals is calculated. The Fault Tree Analysis models were developed for performance evaluation of thermal power plant. These models are employed for the subsystems of plant and furthermore availability indices are evaluated. The overall availability of 87.77% is evaluated using Fault Tree Analysis model. The comparative results are obtained from the study, which revealed that the Fault Tree Analysis model provides an availability index of the system closer to real-time data.

References

1 Adhikary D.D., Bose G.K., Chattopadhyay S., Bose D. and Mitra S. (2012) RAM investigation of coal-fired thermal power plants: A case study. Int. J. Ind. Eng. Comput. 3, 3, 423 – 424. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ijiec.2011.12.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ijiec.2011.12.003

2 Bisanovic S., Hajro M. and Samardzic M. (2013) Component Criticality Importance Measures in Thermal Power Plants Design. Int. J. Electr. Comput. Energ. Electron. Commun. Eng., 7, 3, 213 – 218. Available at: https://www.acade mia.edu/112818866/Component_Criticality_Importance_Measures_in_Thermal_Power_Plants_Design

3 Pariaman H., Garniwa I., Surjandari I. and Sugiarto B. (2015) Availability improvement methodology in thermal power plant. Sci. J. PPI-UKM, 2, 1, 43 – 52. http://kemalapublisher.com/index.php/ppi-ukm/article/viewFile/44/pdf_7

4 Kumarappan N., Suresh K. (2015) Combined SA PSO method for transmission constrained maintenance scheduling using levelized risk method. Int. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 73, 1025 – 1034. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2015.06.026 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2015.06.026

5 Dong W., Zhang X., Dong Y., Lin Y. (2023) Equipment reliability assessment based on a two-parameter Weibull distribution. Proceedings of the 2023 Intern. Conf. on Management Science and Software Engineering. Atlantis Press, 538 – 544. https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-262-0_56 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-262-0_56

6 Hassani H., Silva E.S. (2015) A Kolmogorov–Smirnov based test for comparing predictive accuracy. Econometrics, 3(3), 590 – 609. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics3030590 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics3030590

7 Eti M.C., Ogaji S.O.T., Probert S.D. (2007) Integrating reliability, availability, maintainability and supportability with risk analysis for improved operation of the Afam thermal power-station. Appl. Energy, 84, 2, 202 – 221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2006.05.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2006.05.001

8 Barabady J., Kumar U. (2007) Reliability characteristics-based maintenance scheduling: A case study of a crushing plant. Int. J. Performability Eng. 3, 3, 319 – 328. https://doi.org/10.23940/ijpe.07.3.p319.mag

9 Nygymanova A., Bekbayev А.B., Sarsenbayev Е.A., Almuratova N.K. (2025) A method for determining the reliability indicators of equipment at electric power plants. Bulletin of the Almaty University of Power Engineering and Telecommunication, 71, 4, 6 – 19. https://doi.org/10.51775/2790-0886_2025_71_4_6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.51775/2790-0886_2025_71_4_6

10 Carazas F.J.G., Salazar C.H., Souza G.F.M. (2011) Availability analysis of heat recovery steam generators used in thermal power plants. Energy, 36, 6, 3855 – 3870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.04.007 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.003

11 Jung S., Yoo J., Lee Y.-J. (2020) A software fault tree analysis technique for formal requirement specifications of nuclear reactor protection systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 202, 107064. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107064 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107064

12 Nehal N., Lounis Z., Bouhadiba B., Lounis Z. (2023) Modelling of heating furnace fire scenarios using fault tree analysis, a bayesian network, and a thermal transfer method for system reliability analysis. J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 83. 104995. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2023.104995 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2023.104995

13 Zio E., Podofillini L. (2007) Importance measures and genetic algorithms for designing a risk-informed optimally balanced system. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 92, 10, 1435 – 1447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.011

14 Mandelli D., Wang C., Agarwal V., Lin L., Manjunatha K.A. (2024) Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 243, 109861. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109861 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109861

15 Akula S. K., & Salehfar H. (2026) Reliability Assessment of Power System Microgrid Using Fault Tree Analysis: Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis. Electronics, 15(2), 433. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics15020433 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics15020433

STUDY TO ASSESS ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN A THERMAL POWER PLANT USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS MODEL